Does growing economic interdependence among great powers increase or decrease the chance of conflict and war? Liberals argue that the benefits of trade give states an incentive to stay peaceful. Realists contend that trade compels states to struggle for vital raw materials and markets. Moving beyond the stale liberal-realist debate, Economic Interdependence and War lays out a dynamic theory of expectations that shows under what specific conditions interstate commerce will reduce or heighten the risk of conflict between nations. Taking a broad look at cases spanning two centuries, from the Napoleonic and Crimean wars to the more recent Cold War crises, Dale Copeland demonstrates that when leaders have positive expectations of the future trade environment, they want to remain at peace in order to secure the economic benefits that enhance long-term power. When, however, these expectations turn negative, leaders are likely to fear a loss of access to raw materials and markets, giving them more incentive to initiate crises to protect their commercial interests. The theory of trade expectations holds important implications for the understanding of Sino-American relations since 1985 and for the direction these relations will likely take over the next two decades. Economic Interdependence and War offers sweeping new insights into historical and contemporary global politics and the actual nature of democratic versus economic peace.
A second edition of this leading introduction to the origins of the First World War and the pre-war international system. William Mulligan shows how the war was a far from inevitable outcome of international politics in the early twentieth century and suggests instead that there were powerful forces operating in favour of the maintenance of peace. He discusses key issues ranging from the military, public opinion, economics, diplomacy and geopolitics to relations between the great powers, the role of smaller states and the disintegrating empires. In this new edition, the author assesses the extensive new literature on the war's origins and the July Crisis as well as introducing new themes such as the relationship between economic interdependence and military planning. With well-structured chapters and an extensive bibliography, this is an essential classroom text which significantly revises our understanding of diplomacy, political culture, and economic history from 1870 to 1914.
This book explores one of the most important current topics in international relations: whether trade diminishes or enhances conflict. Mark J. C. Crescenzi adopts an original perspective, arguing that the 'exit costs' confronting states - how hard it would be for them to replace the trade they are threatening to cut - determines the credibility of the threat and the effect of such trade on the likelihood of political conflict.
The claim that open trade promotes peace has sparked heated debate among scholars and policymakers for centuries. Until recently, however, this claim remained untested and largely unexplored. Economic Interdependence and International Conflict clarifies the state of current knowledge about the effects of foreign commerce on political-military relations and identifies the avenues of new research needed to improve our understanding of this relationship. The contributions to this volume offer crucial insights into the political economy of national security, the causes of war, and the politics of global economic relations. Edward D. Mansfield is Hum Rosen Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Christopher H. Browne Center for International Politics at the University of Pennsylvania. Brian M. Pollins is Associate Professor of Political Science at Ohio State University and a Research Fellow at the Mershon Center.
As tensions continue to rise between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan, numerous analysts and officials have warned of a growing risk of military conflict, which could potentially draw in the United States. How worried should we be about a war in the Taiwan Strait? Scott L. Kastner offers a comprehensive analytical account of PRC-Taiwan relations that sheds new light on the prospects for cross-strait military conflict. He examines several key regional trends that have complex implications for stability, including deepening economic integration, the shifting balance of military power, uncertainty about the future of U.S. commitment, and domestic political changes in both the PRC and Taiwan. Kastner argues that the risks of conflict are real but should not be exaggerated. Several distinct pathways could lead to the breakout of hostilities, and the mechanisms that might allay one type of conflict do not necessarily apply to others—yet war is anything but inevitable. Although changes to the balance of power introduce risks, powerful mitigating factors remain in place and there are plausible steps to reduce the likelihood of military conflict. Drawing on both international relations theory and close empirical analysis of regional trends, this book provides vital perspective on how a war in the Taiwan Strait could occur—and how one could be avoided.
This book is about the strategic interactions between China and other major powers in the Asia-Pacific, the United States, Japan, and the Southeast Asian states, in the context of China's rise and processes of globalization after the Cold War.
"This book explores how market power competition between states can create disruptions in the global political economy and potentially lead to territorial aggression and war. When a state's firms have the ability to set prices in a key commodity market like oil or natural gas, state leaders can benefit from increased revenue, stability, and political leverage. Given these potential benefits, states may be motivated to expand their territorial reach in order to gain or maintain such market power. This market power motivation can sometimes lead to war. However, when states are economically interdependent, they may be constrained from using force to achieve their market power goals. This can open up an opportunity for institutional settlements. However, in some cases, institutional rules and procedures can preclude states from reaching a settlement in line with their market power ambitions. When this happens, states may opt for strategic delay and try to gradually accumulate market power over time through salami tactics. To explore how these dynamics play out empirically, we examine three cases of market power competition in hard commodity markets: Iraq's invasion and occupation of Kuwait to seize market power in the oil export market, Russia's territorial encroachment into Georgia and Ukraine to preserve and expand its market power in the natural gas market, and China's ongoing use of strategic delay and gray zone tactics in the South and East China Seas to maintain its dominant position in the global market for rare-earth elements"--
New approaches to understanding war and peace in the changing international system. What causes war? How can wars be prevented? Scholars and policymakers have sought the answers to these questions for centuries. Although wars continue to occur, recent scholarship has made progress toward developing more sophisticated and perhaps more useful theories on the causes and prevention of war. This volume includes essays by leading scholars on contemporary approaches to understanding war and peace. The essays include expositions, analyses, and critiques of some of the more prominent and enduring explanations of war. Several authors discuss realist theories of war, which focus on the distribution of power and the potential for offensive war. Others examine the prominent hypothesis that the spread of democracy will usher in an era of peace. In light of the apparent increase in nationalism and ethnic conflict, several authors present hypotheses on how nationalism causes war and how such wars can be controlled. Contributors also engage in a vigorous debate on whether international institutions can promote peace. In a section on war and peace in the changing international system, several authors consider whether rising levels of international economic independence and environmental scarcity will influence the likelihood of war.
Presents the research on economic factors affecting peace and war. This title includes theoretical perspectives on the economic foundations of peace, violence and war within countries, connections between international trade and inter-state conflict, and the role of legal/institutional factors in international and internal conflict.